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The Return Of The Sleeping Giant:
Examining The Filipino Vote And
Candidates For Office In 2002
Boylan did admit that "to the extent
that most Filipinos
tend to be working class folks, they're probably more
prone to be Democrats because the unions have largely drawn
them in that direction."
Specifically as to the Governor's race,
Boylan stated that
he agreed with Anderson as to the importance of the Filipino
vote in the election. "I think whoever wins this election
is in all likelihood either going to carry the
Filipinos or they're going to break even with them,"
Boylan predicted "I'm sure the devil don't think you can
lose them overwhelmingly and still take it."
Boylan noted that if Honolulu Mayor Jeremy
Harris, who
has major support among Filipino voters, had run as Governor,
Harris would have gained Filipino votes
"in volume."
"I don't think that's likely to be
the case with any of the Democratic candidates who are left
in the race," he predicted "They may hold the Filipino
votes but they are
not going to have it in the size or enthusiasm that Harris would
have had."
In the General Election, "my guess
is that the Democrat
will carry the Filipino vote. The question is how much will
they carry it by?" Boylan stated.
Might the Filipino vote prove to be the
crucial swing vote
in the gubernatorial election? "I don't want to go there
because I don't think any one vote is going to be the swing,"
said Boylan.
"I think it's more likely to be two
ethnic groups that are going to make the difference: Filipinos
and the Hawaiians."
"Historically, the Japanese will ultimately stay with the
Democrats and historically, the Haoles will go with the Republicans,"
stated Boylan "and I think the Filipino and Hawaiian votes
are what folks are going to be fighting
for. "Voter turnout will be vital if Filipinos are to serve
as
a statistical factor in the gubernatorial election. Lt. Gov.
Mazie Hirono, in an interview with the CHRONICLE about her run
for Governor this year, expressed concern about the Filipino
voter turnout in past elections.
"I think the Filipinos need to come
out to vote," she
stated and later added that she felt "the (Filipino) vote
is still too low."
Hirono observed that "one of the ways
that any group really shows its strength is by voting and so
I'd like to
see many, many more Filipinos do that and I know that
in our community, we have Filipinos on the Supreme Court and
all walks of life, the rank and file". However, the Lt.
Governor went on to note that low voter turnout was a problem
statewide not just among Filipinos.
A STATISTICAL SNAPSHOT
While the potential impact of Filipino vote in this year's elections
has thus far been addressed, the actual
statistical makeup of the Filipino vote needs to be examined.
Just what are the numbers?
Statistics from Voter Contact Services
may provide the answer. VCS is a private firm that services
a very select range of clients by providing lists, labels and
databases
of voting districts and voters as well as statistical analysis.
According to VCS, there are (as of mid-June of 2002)
72,647 registered Filipino voters or 12.9 percent out of a total
registered voter population of 561, 296. (It must be noted that
the Filipino voters were determined by VCS
from voter lists solely by looking at surnames or last names).
The 72,647 registered voters of Filipino ancestry
in 2002 marks an increase of 10,022 voters over VCS figures
of 62,625 Filipino voters or 12.4 percent of registered voting
population in 1998, the last election
year in which there was a Governor's race.
The House Districts with the largest concentrations
of Filipino voters were: District 35 (Pearl City, Waipahu)
3,902 voters; District 29 (Kalihi-Kapalama) 3,413 ; District
30 (Alewa Heights-Kalihi) 2,811; District 42 (Waipahu-Ewa) 2,613;
District 9 (Kahului-Paia) 2,398; District 41
(Waipahu-Waikele) 2,338; District 40 (Makakilo-Kapolei) 2,260;
District 38 (Mililani-Mililani Mauka) 2,240; District
16 (Niihau-Poipu-Kokee) 2,159; District 1 (Hawaii-Hilo) 2,145
and District 32 (Mapunapuna- Foster Village) 2,095.
The State Senate Districts with the largest
amount of Filipino voters were: District 18 (Waipahu) 5,047;
District 7 (Kauai-Niihau) 5,546; District 14 (Kalihi Valley-Halawa)
5,078; District 20 (Ewa, Kapolei, Ewa Beach)
4,468 and District 22 (Kaena-Wahiawa-Pupukea) 4,066.
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